Trouble Comes to Nigeria

A series of explosions ripped through Nigeria’s second largest city of Kano on Friday, targeting government and police offices. By Saturday, the militant group Boko Haram claimed responsibility for the deadly attack whose final death toll is not yet determined but is expected to be over 200 people.

Boko Haram was founded in 2002 as an anti-Western Salafi sect in Northern Nigeria. Since then, the group has evolved into a jihadist militia opposing the Nigerian government and all contact with the West. Starting 2009, Boko Haram began to carry out attacks against government outposts and critics of their ideology. But despite their violent past, the group has only recently gained international attention as their attacks grew in size and coordination. A series of attacks in Maiduguri and Abuja in June 2011 followed by the bombing of the UN’s Nigeria headquarters in August moved Boko Haram to the front page of security briefs in the West and rumors of US military advisers being deployed to the region to help the government gained credence. With last week’s bombings, this is unlikely to change.

It would be easy to couch the existence of Boko Haram and their appeal in Northern Nigeria in terms of Muslim versus Christian, especially given Nigeria’s history of religious strife. But while Boko Haram is an Islamist group with an extreme Islamic ideology, their supporters are drawn mainly from the unemployed youth in the more impoverished northern states who are frustrated by government corruption and limited opportunities despite Nigeria’s oil wealth. In some ways the increasing prominence of Boko Haram over the past year tracks with the growth of protest movements around the world. Most of these movements, whether in the Global North or the Global South, focus on public corruption, the lack of accountability, and a quest for personal dignity. However the frustration behind these movements has been channeled in a variety of ways, from protests in Tunisia and Egypt, to riots in the UK and war in Libya. Without addressing these larger issues as well as the religious desires underpinning the movement, the world will be hearing a lot more about the chaos of Boko Haram.

This much is clear. What is unclear is what this all means for the future of Nigeria. Do these attacks mean Boko Haram has officially declared war on Nigeria? If so, will a war on these terms spark a civil war between the predominately Muslim north and the predominately Christian south? Can the country find a compromise that works for all of its diverse population? Expect these question to be repeatedly asked in the media over the next few weeks, but for now, don’t expect any easy answers.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

Year in Review 2011: When Human Rights “Went Viral”

Many things could be said about the past year, but at the very least it could not be considered boring. Within two weeks of the new year, protests over government corruption in Tunisia ousted its long standing dictator, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. That event, which took many observers by surprise, triggered a wave of protests throughout the region. As the year went on, protests in Egypt overthrew Hosni Mubarak and brought on a NATO intervention in Libya while the Yemeni, Syrian and Bahraini governments responded to discontent in their countries with increasing violence and Morocco introduced a new constitution. Of course such protests were not limited to North Africa and the Middle East; as early as January similar protests against corruption and authoritarianism were seen in Gabon before spreading to Mauritania, Djibouti, Uganda, Malawi, Swaziland and Senegal. Further north, protest movements emerged in Spain and Greece against government austerity measures and high unemployment, while Israelis took to the streets over the summer in record numbers in the name of social justice and protests grew in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. By the end of the year, the Occupy movement broke out in the US and Canada against the large involvement of money in politics and the lack of economic opportunity for the average citizen while large student protests over educational reform broke out in Colombia and Chile. And finally, in December protests against government corruption reached all the way to the doors of the Kremlin in Russia. So numerous and active has the protest calendar been over the past 12 months, it is quite possible to narrate the entire year only in major protest movements and events.

Egyptian women marching during the January 25 revolution. Photo by Hossam el-Hamalawy

Of course, other events happened in the field of human rights. The drama of last year’s contested presidential elections in Cote d’Ivoire continued into 2011 with open fighting between parties loyal to each of the candidates. Just two weeks after the UN Security Council approved a no-fly zone over Libya, it also adopted Resolution 1975 which allowed the French-supported peacekeeping mission there to use all necessary measures to protect civilian life. Two weeks later, incumbent president and 2010 election loser Laurent Gbagbo was arrested by UN forces in his home, ending the standoff. In late November, Gbagbo was transferred to the International Criminal Court in The Hague following an arrest warrant for crimes against humanity. His transfer means that it is likely he will be the first former head of state to stand trial at the ICC.

Both the UN intervention in Cote d’Ivoire and the NATO intervention in Libya gave the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine a boost. While some debate whether NATO overstepped its UN authorization in its campaign, possibly hurting the effectiveness of the doctrine, these two events illustrated that even the international community can learn from its past mistakes when facing imminent civilian carnage, even if the application of the policy is uneven.

Elsewhere in Africa, the Republic of South Sudan officially became independent in July after a referendum in January that saw over 98% of the population vote for independence. Yet as South Sudan celebrated a new chapter of their own history and the end of a six-year long peace process, the UN declared a famine in parts of Somalia following an ongoing drought throughout the entire region and new violence broke out along the just created border between Sudan and South Sudan.

Of course, disasters – both manmade and natural – were not limited to the Global South. In July, Anders Behring Breivik set off a car bomb in Oslo and attacked a summer camp on the Norwegian island of Utøya, killing 87 people and shocking the normally calm Nordic country. In August, a small protest against police brutality spun out of control and set off four days of rioting across the United Kingdom.

Looking at this brief summary of the past year, it is easy to understand why the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights, Navi Pillay, declared 2011 as the year where “human rights went viral.” However not all of year’s events treated human rights kindly. The execution of Muamar Gaddafi at the hands of rebel forces in Libya, and the cheers that came from some corners at the online footage of his abuse at the hands of his captors, reminded us that even monsters deserve compassion and we all have it in us to deny others basic dignity. In the US, the execution of Troy Davis brought the death penalty back into the spotlight, but even a sustained media campaign on the apparent shortcomings of the case against him could not save his life. The year was also not a good one for journalists, as the Committee to Protect Journalist announced that 45 journalists were killed in 2011, with Pakistan being the most dangerous country for journalists this year. And while some claimed 2011 to be the year of social media, that also came with tragic consequences as citizen journalists and online activists found themselves in the crosshairs of various groups, from drug cartels in Mexico to government forces in North Africa and the Middle East.

Finally, while there were many positive developments over the past 12 months, the year ended on a sour note with news that President Obama signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act, including the troublesome provision that allows the government to indefinitely detain US citizens in the United States if they are suspected of terrorism. There are many problematic aspects to this provision, not just for human rights but also for the basic principles of democracy and due process in the US. If nothing else, this quiet act at the end of 2011 will give activists a new cause to start 2012 with.

Protester in Bahrain - Photo by Al Jazeera

As no Year in Review would be incomplete without a list, here are some of my top picks for 2011:

Most Unexpected event

As I noted at the start, this year has been an incredibly active one for protests, the type of year that probably hasn’t been seen since 1968. Even still, 2011 has been more remarkable in many ways because of the diverse locations where these movements have sprung up and in how they built upon each other throughout the year, aided by relationships forged through social media and increased global communications. While analysts may have suggested that major uprisings or protests were due in some of these countries for a while, I doubt that any of them would have – or even could have – predicted the way these protests merged and multiplied, both online and in the streets. There is no single name for this trend or phenomenon, but that is my choice for most unexpected event of the year.

Most important person or group

Closely related to my choice for most unexpected event, my pick for the most important person or group is actually a generation. Whatever you choose to call them – Generation Y, Millennials, Generation Next, or some other iteration – their presence has been undeniable in shaping major events of the past year. In 1966, Robert F. Kennedy gave a speech at University Cape Town where he memorably stated, “Few will have the greatness to bend history, but each of us can work to change a small portion of events. And in the total of all those acts will be written the history of a generation.” After years of being mostly defined by their consumer habits and entertainment choices, this past year saw this generation find its voice against injustice, as well as the courage to work towards a different world.

Book of the year

My choice for book of the year highlights the aborted Persian Spring rather than this year’s Arab Spring. “Then They Came For Me” by Maziar Bahari tells of his months in Iran’s infamous Evin Prison for his journalistic coverage of the 2009 Iranian Election Protests. While his period in prison was Kafkaesque at times, the story also highlights the humanity of the protestors and ordinary Iranians in their search for dignity in a country that they love.

What to look for in 2012…

While 2011 was a major game-changer in some ways, on the other hand I find that my outlook for 2012 is not much different from what I predicted last year. I’m comfortable with that since much of what I predicted for 2010 came true this past year (and being only a year off is fine with me).

Digital rights and what freedom of expression means in the 21st century will continue to be a major human rights issue, especially after the EU quietly passed the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Act earlier this month and the possibility that the US House of Representatives will pass the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) in the new year.

Likewise protests are also likely to continue in 2012. The four countries that managed to overthrow their dictators this year – Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen – still face significant battles in stabilizing their governments and bringing about a full democratic transition. Protests and subsequent crackdowns by the government continue in both Bahrain and Syria, with no end in sight for either. The only country in North Africa to largely escape the protests that swept the region is Algeria, but already some are predicting that may change soon. Similarly, the Occupy movement is determined to not fade away in the new year as they come up with new methods of protest even as many of their camps are disbanded. As this past year demonstrated, protests movements in one corner of the globe can bring about new movements elsewhere, so what is in store for 2012 remains a mystery to even the most astute analysts.

Corporate involvement and influence in politics is also likely to be an ongoing issue. This is the central focus of the Occupy movement, but there have been other indications that more people are focusing on corporate accountability as well. In particular, the increasing evidence of Western technology firms selling surveillance equipment to repressive regimes have raised new questions about what responsibility for-profit organization have in the consequences of their products. Elsewhere, there is growing attention on the long term impact that increased involvement of Chinese firms in Africa may have for both political and economic democracy in the region and the growth of human rights. No matter where you look, corporations are facing more scrutiny which in unlikely to go away anytime soon.

In the end, what I am left with in the final hours of 2011 is how much more optimistic I am about this coming year than I was last year. So much has happened in the past 12 months that it can boggle the mind. But while some events were heartbreaking, most of the past year has been uplifting and at times, even inspiring. If 2011 was the year when “human rights went viral” then it is now on us to make 2012 the year when the world finally consolidated those rights and made them count.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

Politicizing Medicine in Bahrain

One of the uprisings in the Middle East that has failed to garner a lot of attention is the situation in Bahrain. Even though Bahrainis took to the Lulu Roundabout much the same way Egyptians did in Tahrir Square just days after Mubarak’s ouster and before major protests broke out in Libya, the story itself has escaped Western news cycles. The excellent Al Jazeera English documentary on the uprising,Shouting in the Dark, correctly notes that at the outset of the Bahraini protests they “discovered what felt like a secret revolution… No lights, no TV crews, just a people, shouting in the dark.” Not much has changed since those early days of the protests in February. As the world focused on Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, few stories about the troubles in Bahrain made headlines. One of the rare exceptions is the treatment medical personnel have received from the Gulf kingdom for their role in treating protesters harmed by government security forces.

The targeting of medical personnel is not unique to Bahrain but is a serious breach of medical ethics and human rights. In the case of Bahrain, reports of intimidation of medical staff at the state-run Salmaniya Medical Complex emerged within hours of the early morning raid on Lulu. Numerous human rights groups such as Physicians for Human Rights and Human Rights Watch have documented intimidation of medical staff through violent attacks and threats, as well as the militarization of hospitals in order to control access to medical treatment.

As the government crackdown continued but protests failed to die down, the continued willingness of medical staff to fulfill their professional duty to provide care to all people regardless of politics increasingly landed those same medical personnel in political trouble themselves. Before long, many of the country’s top doctors and nurses were arrested under charges of trying to topple the monarchy. The trial of 48 medics in front of a military court started in June and ended in with at least 20 of themreceiving sentences ranging from 5 to 15 years in prison in September. Although the government agreed a week later to re-try the medics in a civilian court, new charges of weapons by the prosecution in contradiction to the official report by the Bahrain Independent Commission suggests that the new trial may not be any better in terms of fairness and impartiality.

Of course, the plight of the Bahrain medics is only one facet of troubles the kingdom has faced since protests broke out in February. However it is also indicative of why the crackdown in Bahrain has been more upsetting to some observers than other protests movements like Libya and Yemen. As Hani Mowafi for Amnesty International Magazine noted last month:

Although the scale of violence directed at protestors has certainly been greater in other countries in the region, the brutality of the crackdown in Bahrain came as a shock to many who had considered Bahrain to be a glittering hub of commerce along the lines of the Dubai model. The government attempted to justify its actions by portraying the protestors and their supporters as part of an Iran-backed Shi’a movement even though the protests focused on expanded political rights and included some Sunnis. Although we saw no evidence of sectarianism on the part of hospital staff, the government has targeted them and portrayed them as Shi’a-leaning. Amid this increasingly sectarian rhetoric, simply articulating what had happened became an act of tremendous courage. Indeed, while we were there, the doctors, nurses and emergency personnel we interviewed described being harassed, detained and released on various occasions following the initial crackdown, although they did not anticipate the full scale of the persecution to come.

Today, protests continue daily in Bahrain as does the government crackdown. Meanwhile, medics are waiting in prison cells for their trial to resume in January and learn what their fate will be for doing their job in a place where every action now has political consequences.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

Ramadan Starts with Violence in Syria

For followers of Islam, Ramadan is the holy month that marks the revelation of the first verses of the Koran to the Prophet Mohammad and is a time of fasting, contemplation, and charity. As the Arab Spring continues to progress through 2011, many wondered what effect Ramadan would have on the protests. On the one hand, additional evening prayers give people more opportunities to gather, but on the other hand long, hot days of fasting tend to sap energy and violence during Ramadan is generally looked down upon. However on the eve of Ramadan, the Syrian government decided that repeating its own bloody history would be a good way to mark the holy month.

According to local accounts, shortly before dawn Syrian army tanks broke through the barricades blocking off the central city of Hama. The city had been under siege for the last month following protests over the reign of President Bashar al-Assad. Once in the city, eyewitnesses reported indiscriminate shooting from heavy machine guns and shelling that resulted in the death of at least 100 people.

Although other cities also came under attack on Sunday, it is Hama that resonates most with people in the region. In 1982, security forces launched a scorched earth campaign against an uprising that challenged the rule of Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, killing 10,000 to 30,000 people. The Hama Massacre traumatized the region and shut down the hopes of any would-be activists for a generation. Since the start of the Arab Spring in December, analysts and activists have worried about “another Hama” that would have the same chilling results. Sunday’s assault demonstrated that a brutal crushing of the people is still possible in Syria, but the response of the population suggests that it may not work this time.

Instead, the memory of the Hama Massacre has become a rallying point for the country. Chants of “Hama! We will not let you down again!” have sounded in many Syrian cities even as the tactics of the government became more brutal. Last month, the city hosted US Ambassador Robert Ford in a visit heavily criticized by the Syrian government but popularly received by residents. And yesterday, in the face of what some are now calling the Ramadan Massacre, activist inside and outside of Syria pledged to continue fighting the regime no matter what.

One thing activists today have in their favor is modern media. Even while international journalists are largely banned from the country, news of the atrocities is still getting out thanks in large part to smuggled mobile and satellite phones that allow protesters to upload videos to YouTube and post updates on Facebook and Twitter. The appalling violence demonstrated in the videos uploaded yesterday is probably a major reason why condemnation from Western governments was so quick. President Obama condemned the attacks Sunday afternoon and the European Union moved to expand sanctionsagainst Syria on Monday. Even Russia appeared to at least soften its stance against a UN Security Council resolution on Syria in the wake of the violence, though it remains unclear if it would drop its objection altogether.

Meanwhile, with Ramadan now in full swing the shelling of Hama by security forces continues for a second day and there are reports of violence in the town of Deir Al-Zor. Let the revolution continue…

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

The cost of telling the story

Today has been a difficult day.

In the world of human rights, we often talk of the need to bear witness. This is why organizations like the UN, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and others send investigators and analysts to distant lands to record and document possible abuses that may be occurring there. However many of us rely on the media – be it mainstream, citizen-based, or something in between – to tell us the stories and show us the pictures we should be paying attention to. Through them, we gain the tools to bear witness ourselves.

The people who bring us these stories often do so at great risk to themselves. Nowhere else is this more true than in war zones where every excursion in the field could be their last. This is the realityjournalists in war zones choose to bear in order to give voices and faces to those who have no other means to tell their stories and to give the rest of the world a view into their humanity. The journalist’s role in this cycle is crucial, and one that we all take for granted.

That is until days like today.

While reporting in Misrata, the last rebel-held city in Western Libya, four Western journalists came under mortar attack. Tim Hetherington died shortly thereafter while a colleague, Chris Hondros, died later in the day from extensive head wounds caused by the attack. Both were critically-acclaimed photojournalists with extensive experience covering the horrors of war from Liberia to Afghanistan. Two other photojournalists injured in the attack, Chris Brown and Guy Martin, are reported to be recovering from their wounds in Misrata.

These two men were the vanguard of their profession, internationally recognized and acclaimed with Academy Award and Pulitzer Prize nominations. Their lives and careers could probably not be any farther away than the life of Khalid Ahmed Alghirani, a Libyan citizen-journalist reporting via Twitter from the mountain city of Zintan through the group OperationLibyia. Yet that difference did not stop these men from the same fate as word also came today that Alghirani died of a chest wound he received the day before from forces loyal to Colonel Gaddafi. As the only English speaking member of OperationLibyia he understood, right up to the end, his role in letting the world know what was transpiring in Zintan. The twitter feed of OperationLibyia is now entirely in Arabic, another harsh reminder for us Anglophones of what happens when brave voices are silenced.

It remains entirely unclear what the future holds for Libya as every hypothesis offered by well meaning analysts seems to be debunked within days. But it is clear that right now, Libya is a country in serious pain. For those of us watching, reading, and listening to every scrap of information coming out of the country, days like today are especially painful as they represent not only more death and suffering, but of the silencing of voices that need to be heard. While their deaths should not be any more painful than the others killed in this conflict, many of us on the outside have experienced this conflict so far through their eyes. That perspective shifts the view of what their deaths mean, and also the ethics of what bearing witness should mean. They are deaths which, for better or for worse, will stay with many of us for a long time to come.

Days after the uprising broke out in Eastern Libya, a man named Mohammed Nabbous took to LiveStream to tell the world what was happening in Benghazi. “I am not afraid to die, I am afraid to lose the battle,” he proclaimed. He then bypassed government internet controls and founded Libya Alhurra TV in order to broadcast news out of Libya during the uprising. Yet a month after his internet debut, he was shot in the head by snipers while trying to investigate reports of government attacks in Benghazi. His pregnant wife Perdita reported the news in a heartbreaking audio clip on Libya Alhurra that still haunts me a month later.

That too was a difficult day. But despite the personal pain she must be going through, Perdita and the Libya Alhurra team have continued her husband’s work in reporting the news of the uprising via LiveStream. And in that, I will take some comfort as those who tyrants would silence can never be silenced easily or completely.

That is the legacy they have, but in doing so, they also pass responsibility onto us. Merely bearing witness is important but will never be enough; it is what we do with that information and how we empower others with it that matters. The last tweet Hetherington sent the day before his death reported, “In besieged Libyan city of Misrata. Indiscriminate shelling by Qaddafi forces. No sign of NATO.”

As the families of these courageous men prepare to put their loved ones to rest, it is now on us to honor them as well. After all, as journalists they did their part, and now it is time to do ours.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

The President and Human Rights

Once a year, as mandated by the Constitution, the President of the United States gives an address to Congress updating them on the state of the union. Over time, much ceremony and tradition has been attached to the State of the Union and every year it is broadcast on television, radio, and internet with political commentators and pundits listening to every word, waiting to give their verdict of what the speech means and what the country should prepare for in the working of Congress for the next year.

Clearly, the State of the Union is drafted and delivered for a domestic audience; though foreign policy topics are often touched upon, it is rarely the focus or purpose of the address. Nonetheless, it is always interesting to parse what gets included as there is frequently a broad human rights undertone to these examples. However this undertone also raises just as many questions about what isn’t included and this year was no exception.

Not surprisingly, countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan all got a mention, though probably much shorter than many analysts expected given the level of US involvement in those states. Even more surprising was just the passing mention of Iran and North Korea, both of whom have dominated foreign policy discussions in recent years. Instead, more recent events received the bulk of the foreign policy focus.

This month’s referendum on Southern Sudan earned an entire paragraph from the president. Though less than that monumental event deserves, it did offer a rare opportunity to highlight the benefits of peaceful conflict resolution. It should be also noted that highlighting Southern Sudan while not mentioning the ongoing conflict in Darfur may also be a small diplomatic gesture to Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir whose cooperation is necessary to ensure successful secession of Southern Sudan.

However the mention of Southern Sudan also provided a theme of freedom that carried on to his mention of recent events in North Africa. There was plenty of speculation Tuesday on social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter regarding whether Tunisia would get a mention. In the end, the recent uprising in Tunisia did get a nod of approval in one of the stronger statements released by a Western government since the fall of President Ben Ali earlier this month:

“And we saw that same desire to be free in Tunisia, where the will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator. And tonight, let us be clear: The United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people.”

However, while Obama pledged to stand with the people of Tunisia and support democratic aspirations everywhere, on that night the aspirations of Egyptians who hosted Tunisia-styled demonstrations earlier that day against their own dictatorial government went ignored.

Thus, the foreign policy focus of this year’s State of the Union left a lot to be desired by many people. However that does not mean that human rights did not feature prominently in other ways. What this speech will likely be known for in the future is the public reaffirmation of the accepted place American Muslims have at the American table of plurality and the celebration of the repeal of the military’s “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy against openly gay servicemen. In the face of growing Islamophobia throughout the West and ongoing discrimination faced by the LGBT community, these two declarations may have been short in length but have tremendous weight when said on the keynote speech of the year.

And so in the end while commentators will continue to discuss what didn’t make it into the speech, it is important to note what did. None of the events or causes mentioned above are less deserving of the attention of the world’s current superpower than others. With as many considerations that go into drafting this speech every year, it’s kind of amazing that human rights consistently make it into the address every year with more than just empty promises regarding their place in the world. In the ongoing analyses and deconstructions of Tuesday night, that too should not be forgotten.

Originally published at Foreign Policy Blogs

A Jasmine Revolution for Tunisia?

What a difference a few days make. Since writing my post on the demonstrations in Tunisia on Wednesday, President Ben Ali went from claiming that only terrorists and fanatics were protesting toannouncing that he would not run for re-election when his current term expires in 2014. He also assured the population that censorship would end, political freedoms would be extended, and ordered police to only shoot protesters in self defense. Not surprisingly, many of the demonstrators didn’t buy it. Early Friday, Ben Ali went a step father by apologizing, dismissing his entire government and calling for new elections within six months. Again, the protesters did not back down and instead, the concessions by Ben Ali appeared to bolster them and a state of emergency was declared as violent clashes continued in the capital Tunis. Then, in the course of an hour and a half, confirmed reports came flooding in announcing that Ben Ali had left the country, members of the ruling family had been arrested at the airport, Tunisian airspace had been closed, and the army was in control and handed over ruling authority to Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi. Debates over the constitutionality of Ghannouchi assuming control instantly started, leading the Constitutional Court to declare Tunisia’s Speaker of Parliament, Fouad Mebazaa, as interim leader early Saturday. Meanwhile, Ben Ali and his family have found refuge in Saudi Arabia, much to the chagrin of online commentators.

As has been typical with the ongoing situation in Tunisia, the reports of the government’s collapse first appeared on Twitter before being reported by Al Jazeera and culminated with the announcement by Ghannouchi on Tunisian state television. Thus, when the dust settled and the 7 pm curfew went into effect on the streets of Tunis Friday night, it appeared the repressive 23 year rule of Ben Ali ended due to the uprising of common people, showing once again that those who come to power in a coup are apt to be forced to leave by a coup as well. Already commentators are dubbing this the “Jasmine Revolution” after Tunisia’s official state flower. But there is still much speculation about what the coming days will bring and whether this “revolution” will bring about any real change at all.

Those are the facts of the situation. Beyond that, there is a lot to say and a lot that is still unknown about what lies ahead for Tunisia.

The political situation and the rule of law

The events in Tunisia are unprecedented for the country in a number of ways, which also makes much of what will happen next unclear. This uncertainty has already played out with the assumption of power by the Prime Minister, only for it to be transferred to Mebazaa due to which article of the Tunisian constitution should control the situation. The assumption of Mebazaa as Interim Leader means that he now has 45 to 60 days to create a new government and hold elections, which Mebazaa himself cannot stand for.

The African Union appears content with the interim government’s constitutional legitimacy, andrecognized the new Tunisian government in an emergency session of the AU’s Peace and Security Council on Saturday.

That recognition brings up interesting questions about when a coup is legitimate and when it is not. Normally the AU suspends members when a coup occurs, including when an incumbent leader unconstitutionally extends their reign. Last year in Niger, the military overthrew President Mamadou Tandja after he abolished the Constitutional Court in order to hold a referendum allowing him to change the constitutional and stand for a third term. Tandja then proceeded to rule by decree, in direct opposition to the country’s constitution. Yet when the military stepped in following popular demonstrations in the capital, their attempt to restore constitutional rule was met with suspension by the AU. Why this situation is any different and warranted a different response from the AU is unclear, but comments by at least one member of the Peace and Security Council to Voice of America may suggest the difference in outcome: the hope that Tunisia will serve as a lesson for other repressive governments on the continent and in the Arab world.

That sentiment is echoed in many of the statements released by other heads of states and on blogs around the internet. Statements by both President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hinted at the importance of universal rights and the domestic strength of states that adhere to human rights principles as well as the possible consequences to those leaders that did not. These were probably the most supportive statements for the demonstrators, but statements from EU President Jerzy Buzek andother European leaders such as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel backed the will of the people for a democratic transition, even if their tone appeared a bit cautious. Even the Arab League called for a solution to the crisis that would respect the will of the Tunisian people. Online, Arab bloggers both inside and outside the region cheered on events as they developed on Friday. But there were also calls to not believe the battle was won, at least not yet.

The start to a real Arab Spring?

The overthrow of a dictator by virtue of a popular uprising is not a common event in the world, and certainly not something any one was expecting in Tunisia. Though corrupt and repressive, Ben Ali’s regime largely flew under the radar of international groups by promoting steady economic growth and a picture of a moderate modern Muslim country. The fact that such an uprising occurred in Tunisia has many commentators wondering whether this will be the spark that starts a real Arab Spring and brings an increase in political freedoms to other countries in the region.

The term “Arab Spring” has largely been discredited due to its overuse in recent years. The general idea was that the invasion and establishment of a democratic regime in Iraq would create a domino effect throughout the region. That clearly did not happen. But the Jasmine Revolution, if that is what it turns out to be, offers an organic movement for change coming from within and not from the outside. That offers far more potential for regional influence than US activities in the Gulf.

However that assumes that Tunisia will have a happy ending. There are already reports of militia-like groups looting and randomly firing on people in the streets and prison riots following the announcement of Ben Ali’s fall. Emergency curfews are still in effect as military forces are a common site on the streets of Tunis. All of this serves as a good reminder that a military takeover is not really the same thing as a revolution, though something has to be said for the popular uprising that brought the military to action. Nevertheless it is unclear whether the “Jasmine Revolution” will bring actual change to Tunisia or just be a change of the faces in control of a police state. Unfortunately, the survival of the uprising for the people will likely determine whether it has any effect on other states in the region.

Protests over food prices are already occurring in neighboring Algeria and Jordan, and reports came in over the weekend of clashes with protesters and police in Libya, leading to the suspension of YouTube where videos of the clashes were being shared. News agencies are also reporting that at least one man set himself on fire in front of the Egyptian parliament in Cairo while another did the same in Mauritania in protest of state corruption. These events suggest that the political freedoms, economic security, and freedom from state corruption sought by Tunisians are also fervently wanted by others in the region. Given these events and the celebrations of the coup by Arab bloggers online and in the streets of other Middle Eastern countries, there may be a potential for a real Arab Spring here, but the continuance of business as usual – including the limits on political and social freedoms that has become the standard operating procedure for the region – is just as likely a consequence of Friday’s events.

Final thoughts

These are only some of the issues facing Tunisia in the coming days and weeks. Although the demonstrations garnered very little Western media coverage before, it is likely that Tunisia will be in the news for some time to come. Commentators are already rushing to give their opinions about what the uprising means and what it could signify, as well as what caused it and what may happen next. This will not end anytime soon as the unprecedented events of this past week offer a lot to digest and a lot to think about for Tunisia, the region, and the world at large.

However there are two things that seem certain. The first is that economic stability and progress cannot permanently displace the need for fundamental freedoms. While rising food prices and high unemployment in the countryside fuelled the initial protests, it was the simmering tension from years of political repression that prompted the outpouring of angst on the streets.

The second is that the victory in overthrowing Ben Ali’s regime belongs to Tunisia and Tunisia alone. Despite the debate over the role that Twitter, Facebook, and Wikileaks played in the uprising,  January 14, 2011 belongs to the people of Tunisia for doing what – to the best of my knowledge – has never happened before: a regime change in an Arab (or Arabised) state via popular uprising with no interference from the outside. Social media has the potential to be a powerful mobilizing tool, but true revolutions still require people to take on incredible risks and stand up for their rights.

I am a strong believer that organic change from the inside is far more sustainable and carries more meaning that change brought on by outside actors, but as to whether this suggests that the winds of change are upon North Africa and the Middle East, I have no idea. However Tunisians earned their fair share of adulations this week by standing up against corruption and for the betterment of their country. In any analysis of these events, that fact that this day belongs to them should not be forgotten.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

Tunisia Undone: Protests, Blackouts & Twitter

While most of the world’s attention towards Africa is understandably focused on this week’s independence referendum Southern Sudan, another story is unfolding in North Africa that may tell of future events to come.

On December 17, Mohammed Bouazizi sat down in front of the city hall in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid and set himself on fire to protest the high level of youth unemployment throughout the country. A university graduate, Bouazizi was reduced to illegally selling vegetables on the street to try to make a living. It appears that when the police confiscated his vegetables for not having a permit, Bouazizi decided that enough was enough. Though he ultimately died from his injuries, that singular act awoke other dissatisfied youth and triggered demonstrations and other self immolations, first in Sidi Bouzid but quickly spreading through the country’s central and southern regions. Despite quick police and government action to try and quell the crowds, by the end of the month the protests engulfed the capital Tunis and there is no apparent end in sight.

While the issue of youth unemployment triggered the protests, others have since joined in mainly as a result of harsh police tactics against the demonstrators. Reports of protesters being beaten and tortured after being taken into police custody have emerged from several places, and numerous demonstrators have died in confrontations with police using live ammunition. Many of those caught reporting this information have been arrested, including several Tunisian bloggers and a local rapper who posted a tribute song to the protests online. Soon, worker’s unions and lawyers joined the demonstrations. When some lawyers were arrested and beaten for their peaceful participation, 95 percent of the country’s lawyers launched a general strike with the backing of their bar association. As Mark Lynch noted there is no clear focus or leadership to the protests – even opposition parties have yet to really join in – but rather the chaos engulfing Tunisia in the past month appears to be the long awaited spill over of national dissatisfaction with the government.

Which brings us to another point worth noting: although Tunisia is rarely a topic of interest in the Western news, the government of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali is one of the most repressive in the world with an infrastructure for domestic censorship that rivals China. The watchdog organization Reporters Without Borders ranks Tunisia as 164 out of 178 for press freedom, where Finland is ranked #1 and the brutally oppressive regime of Eritrea is #178. One of the reasons for the low ranking is that unlike many other oppressive regimes in the world, the Tunisian government is quite internet savvy making even new modes of communication like social media networks and blogs greatly susceptible to government interference and ultimately for its authors, a consequence of arrest and imprisonment. Dissent is not tolerated; loyalty must be ensured.

This has been the hallmark of Ben Ali’s reign since he first took power in 1987 but may be coming undone as we speak. Yet so effective is the repression against freedom of speech that thus far the protests have largely escaped the attention of the mainstream media in the West. With the exception ofAl Jazeera who has also faced difficulties in reporting unfolding events, there have been few stories carried in Western newspapers and media outlets on the demonstrations, leading some to claim that there are two media blackouts in place: the one inside Tunisia and the one in the West. However as usual, where the mainstream media fails the blogosphere picks up the slack, making blogs arguably the most reliable source of English-language information on the continuing unrest. Inside the country, prominent bloggers and activists have found their emails and Facebook accounts hacked following a stealthy government campaign to force them to abandon secure https log-in sites in favor of unsecured sites, prompting many to turn to Twitter since that interface is unaffected by the same security loophoops.

It is unclear what the ultimate outcome of the protests will be. Nevertheless, as a country often considered to be one of the most stable in the region, the undoing of Tunisia may lead others in the frequently oppressive region to follow the Tunisian lead. Riots have already broken out in neighboring Algeria over food prices, though as The Moor Next Door observes, this too may have more to do with general domestic dissatisfaction than any particular tangible reason. Perhaps for that reason, the issue of the “Tunisia Scenario” has resonated as a topic of conversation throughout the capitals of North Africa and the Middle East in the past few weeks and may just be the trigger for those regimes to evaluate their own policies towards political and press freedom.

What is clear is the still powerful role that social media can play in fighting political repression. Following the so-called Twitter revolution in Iran, many decried the use of social media by demonstrators as overblown and overhyped by the Western media. In some ways that is true, as Twitter was not the primary organizational tool used by the protesters, however it was an effective way for that story to reach the masses outside of Iran. Today in Tunisia, amid government blackouts and Western apathy among the press and government bureaucracy, social media and second generation journalism through blogs is emerging as one of the only methods for demonstrators to tell their tale for those willing to listen. All of which goes to show that Malcolm Gladwell may be wrong in his view of the role of social media in politics – the revolution just might be tweeted.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs

The electoral disorder of 2010

Among other things, 2010 marked a number of national elections gone wrong. From Guinea to Haiti,Rwanda to the Philippines, Madagascar, Burundi and Belarus to name just a few, elections that were fair, free, non-violent and undisputed have been difficult to find this past year. Even elections in the US and UK took on more vitriol than is common, illustrating that bad politics really does exist everywhere.

These events raise several questions regarding the democratic order: what is the responsibility of the international community in guaranteeing that the will of a people be honored? Is democracy truly a universal political system? Does the sovereignty of states preclude international involvement in domestic elections? These questions have always existed but the nature of more recent election violence is also raising the question of how should such things be dealt with.

Such questions are again at the forefront of the international news cycle as Cote d’Ivoire appears to be slowly sliding back to civil war following a presidential election last month that both incumbant President Laurent Gbagbo and opposition leader Alassane Ouattara claim to have won. Ouattara is widely accepted as the rightful winner outside of the country – including by the United Nations,ECOWAS, the African Union, and even the Central Bank of West African States. Indeed, each passing day of this crisis appears to bring more allies to the side of Ouattara and more impassioned calls for Gbagbo to step down. Yet Gbagbo continues to control the domestic media and enough military forces to cause serious problems, a fact proven by stories of torture and enforced disappearances, the re-emergence of death squads on the streets of Abidjan, and a rising death toll that currently stands at 173.

Coincidentally the electoral crisis in Cote d’Ivoire comes as the International Criminal Court earlier this month released the names of six suspects under investigation for the post-election violence that occurred in Kenya two years ago. The usefulness of the ICC waging into election disputes and the violence that follows has yet to be fully proven; some analysts hail it as a step forward in breaking the cycle of impunity that plagues many “democracies” and demonstrates the full power of the court while others worry that the case could have a destabilizing effect on the country which is progressing, albeit slowly, towards a more inclusive political system. Back in November when elections in Guinea were heading south, a letter from the ICC to the government noting that it was paying close attention to developments in the country may have helped bring about a resolution in that case. The end result there was the swearing in of Guinea’s first democratically elected president in over 50 years. However the reaction of the Kenyan parliament to the actual indictments, which have been a long time coming: anoverwhelming vote for the government to leave the ICC.

There are many reasons as to why it is unlikely that Kenya will actually leave the ICC. But as the situation in Cote d’Ivoire continues to deteriorate and the international community prepares for another contentious referendum in Southern Sudan next month, the issue of what power the international community has in ensuring just elections whose results are honored remains unclear.

What is clear to those following events in Abidjan and Nairobi is that these crises do matter, not just for the future of the countries at hand but also as a test for African leaders to uphold the basic promises of democracy and rule of law. The election in Cote d’Ivoire comes at the end of a peace process designed to heal ethnic and geographical wounds spurred on by previous governments and colonial policies. If allowed to fall apart, West Africa may see the type of genocidal violence normally reserved for their central African neighbors. In a region that admittedly still has a long way to go, the progress West Africa has made in the last ten years in moving away from conflict could be derailed by one man not conceding defeat and urging his followers to do the same. Likewise, failure to address the fundamental issues behind the election violence in Kenya will only serve to encourage the same behavior, a cycle that threatens the regional stability and human rights movement of East Africa. Both examples demonstrate the need for a strategy to encourage the peaceful handover of power when the ruling party loses, a phenomena not completely unknown in these parts but far too uncommon.

Thus, 2010 marked a year when the will of the people often took a beating for the sake of those in power and the rest of the world was left wondering what to do about it. Those questions still remain, but some of them may be answered as the situation in Cote d’Ivoire continues to unfold. However, to be fair while there was no dearth of elections gone wrong in 2010, the year also had its bright spots. As mentioned above, Guinea salvaged its national election to open up what many hope will be a more democratic chapter in that country’s history. And though largely a sham, elections in Burma, the first in 20 years, did see the release of pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest while the election of the first right wing government in Chile since Pinochet demonstrates how far they have come since those dark days. For the international community, these examples are worth remembering as we enter 2011 and get ready for potentially volatile elections in Sudan, Niger, and Zimbabwe as it illustrates the existence of light even in the seemingly darkest of tunnels.

Originally published on Foreign Policy Blogs